The CEO's 4th Quarter Problem

Why Decision Quality Collapses When It Matters Most

What NFL quarterbacks, premier league soccer players understand and CEO's don't

What time are the most expensive decisions in your company made? 4 PM on a Tuesday? 5pm on a Thursday? 2pm on a Wednesday?

You’ve probably seen this:

3:47 PM an CEO/VP/CTO makes their 247th decision of the day.

It's a product pivot, design feature approval, strategy edit that could define the next quarter.

Two hours earlier, this very same person made a very impressive presentation to the board.

Now?

They're running on autopilot, and about to approve a decision they'll regret by Friday.

The Cognitive Cliff

Many technology leaders have likely experienced this cognitive cliff firsthand. That moment when your mental sharpness abandons you precisely when the stakes are highest. Worse still sometimes you don’t even see it coming.

This is the executive equivalent of that moment in the second half of a premier league game when the opposition start to stretch the defense, errors start to appear, or in the NFL, the ‘fourth quarter fumbles’ appear 

Cognitive depletion leads to poor decision-making precisely when stakes are highest.

But like in pro-sport, what most executives don't realize: this isn't a willpower problem.

It's a systems problem.

Hidden Cost of Decision Fatigue

The (in)famous study from Columbia Business School showed that judges grant parole 65% more often at the beginning of their day versus the end. Same judges, same legal procedures, dramatically different outcomes.

Of course, there are a number of factors to consider, but cognitive depletion, nervous system fatigue have very real consequences.  

If trained NFL receivers, quarterbacks or premier league strikers, legal professionals with standardized processes show this much variance, imagine the impact on CEOs making novel, high-stakes decisions throughout the day.

The Technology Paradox

There’s an interesting paradox in the technology industry, technology doesn’t tire, but human cognitive performance has predictable performance degradation patterns. This was one of the first ‘come to Ghandi’ moments for me apply my Phd studies from technology optimization to the Premier League – humans aren’t machines (duh!)

Working with elite athletes from Liverpool, the 49ers to Michigan confirmed this repeatedly: decision quality isn't about willpower or intelligence.

It's about energy allocation. Not time.

You can’t change time.

But you can manage your energy.

Preserving Decision Quality

Training rugby players, soccer player or NFL players facing hundreds of high-pressure decisions per game, you quickly discover something crucial.

And it applies directly to technology environment: the brain's decision-making capacity follows predictable patterns.

Same on the sideline, identical patterns in Premier League managers or coordinators in college football who making tactical decisions during high pressure matches.

The pattern was always the same.

Ford’s CEO understood it – you should too

The most elite sports teams don't just hope their players make good decisions under pressure. They design decision-making systems that maintain quality, not fatigue levels. Alan Mulally, the former CEO of Ford understood it best "Everybody always talks about how you need to manage your time. You need to manage your energy as well".

The morphocycle method integrates four key principles that translate directly to executive leadership:

Energy Allocation

Just as championship teams map physical energy expenditure across a week, elite executives must map cognitive energy across their day and week. Not all processes require peak cognitive capacity.

The key is identifying which 20% of daily decisions drive 80% of strategic outcomes, then protecting cognitive resources for those moments. It’s a ruthless but clear approach - keeping the main thing the main thing.

Decision Delegation

When working with teams facing packed competitive schedules—whether that was Liverpool FC or the 49ers—we developed clear scheduling patterns for which training moments, periods or day required involvement versus delegation. When to be ‘on’, when to be ‘off’.

The same principle applies to C-Suite leadership: establishing clear criteria for what requires CEO-level cognition or trusted lieutenant execution.

Cognitive Recovery Protocols

Elite athletes don't just train hard—the best actually recover harder. It was one of the first revelations I saw in pro sport.

Research shows that even 10-minute breaks can restore decision-making capacity to near-peak levels. The water break, the cooler moment, the innocuous banter or laughter actually has greater impact on performance than most recognize.

Scheduling – Periodizing  

This all starts with scheduling, or as it’s called in sport, periodization. Deciding when the most critical decision periods are and which are less significant. Noting the time, your energy level, and the decision quality in retrospect.

Of course there is fluidity, hence the term ‘morpho’ it will change through the week/day. But if you reflect on your own schedules, you’ll likely discover patterns that mirror what we see in sports: peak performance blocks, vulnerability moments, and often late-day degradation.

Decision Periodization

"Decision periodization" structuring your energy so that high-stakes strategic decisions happen during your cognitive peak hours is key. This isn't about working harder.

It's about working systematically smarter.

Decision delegation approaches are key too. The Eisenhower matrix is an excellent method to use as a check-in here. Like an elite coach, knowing exactly which training or game situations require their direct input or delegating to trusted coordinators or assistants.

(If you can’t feel you can delegate, well that’s a different issue!)

Similarly, you need clear criteria for what constitutes a "CEO decision" versus what can be delegated without compromise.

The Compound Effect of Periodizing

Small improvements in decision periodizing compound dramatically over time. A 10% improvement in decision quality across 200+ daily decisions doesn't just impact individual outcomes.

It transforms organizational performance.

One report suggested teams that implemented systematic decision management reported 23% faster strategic execution and 31% improvement in long-term planning accuracy³.

As technology leaders operating in environments where seconds can mean millions in market capitalization, this is performance optimization at it’s most critical. Just like a sideline decision in a playoff game.

The difference between good leaders and elite leaders isn't only natural ability. It's systematic preparation for the moments that matter most. Elite performance is a choice, and it starts with how you model your decision-making systems.

References:

1. Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011). Extraneous factors in judicial decisions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(17), 6889-6892.
2. Goleman, D. (2013). The focused leader. Harvard Business Review, 91(12), 50-60.
3. Internal analysis based on client performance data from Fortune 500 decision management implementations.